Food Systems and Growth: The Forgotten Key to Economic and Political Stability

This article draws conclusions on the agricultural and food drivers of economic and social prosperity. Food has shaped economies, institutions, and societies for millennia. Yet today, fractured food systems drive inequality, environmental crises, and political instability. As policymakers search for economic solutions, they would be well inspired to rethink how we produce, distribute, and consume food could restore trust, resilience, and shared prosperity. Can sustainable food systems heal the divides of the modern world?

Shaping Civilizations

In 1789, on the eve of the French Revolution, bread prices had reached unsustainable levels, consuming nearly 80% of the average worker’s income (Schama, 1989). The rising cost of food fueled mass discontent, ultimately contributing to the collapse of the monarchy and the birth of modern democratic institutions. This was not an isolated incident—throughout history, access to food has been the defining concern of political stability and social cohesion. Whether in the fall of the Roman Empire, the Arab Spring protests triggered by surging wheat prices (Lagi et al., 2011), or ongoing agricultural crises exacerbating migration patterns (IPBES, 2021), food remains the foundation upon which civilizations rise and fall.

Despite modern advancements and the illusion of abundance, food systems continue to shape economic, social, and political structures worldwide. Agriculture is not just a sector—it is the cornerstone of all human institutions. States, economies, armies, currencies, labour structures, taxation systems, social policies, and even cultural values have been historically shaped by the need to produce, store, distribute, and consume food efficiently. Yet, as policymakers today search for ways to reignite economic growth (Draghi Report, 2023), they largely overlook one of the most transformative levers available: food systems.

Food Systems: A Driver of Growth or Collapse?

For most of human history, securing food was a society’s primary concern. Agricultural surpluses allowed for economic specialization, technological progress, and urbanization, but they also created inequalities, fostered taxation, and necessitated governance. The taxation of grain in ancient Mesopotamia led to the creation of bureaucracies, while the need to protect harvests gave rise to standing armies (Scott, 2017). Even monetary systems emerged from food trade, with early currencies often linked to staple commodities such as barley in Sumer or salt in Rome (Graeber, 2011).

Today, food remains a dominant force in global economics. According to the FAO, the global food industry generates $10 trillion in annual revenue, yet it inflicts an estimated $12 trillion in environmental, health, and social costs (FAO, 2022). Industrial food production is now one of the leading drivers of planetary degradation, contributing significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss, and soil depletion (Rockström et al., 2020; IPBES, 2021). In Western nations, poor diets have become the leading cause of death, surpassing smoking and other risk factors (The Lancet, 2019).

Furthermore, the failure to ensure equitable food distribution has fueled political instability and migration. Food insecurity remains a key driver of forced displacement, particularly in regions facing climate-induced agricultural collapse (UNHCR, 2022). Just as food crises played a role in triggering revolutions in the past, modern food system failures continue to exacerbate social unrest, from protests over food prices in the Middle East to farmer uprisings in Europe.

Rethinking Food Systems as a Pathway for Growth and Stability

At a time when governments seek to revive economic growth, they must recognize that food systems are not just a burden—they present an opportunity for transformation. The way societies organises itself to share its vital resources like food has profound implications for economic sustainability, health, and geopolitical stability. The necessary reorganization of food systems could unlock new pathways for innovation, job creation, and resilience.

However, this transformation cannot be left to farmers or food supply chains alone—it is a collective challenge that demands systemic change. Current governance structures, largely centralized and designed for industrial economies, struggle to address the complexity of modern food challenges. More inclusive and decentralized governance models, drawing inspiration from historical cooperative food systems, could better align production with sustainability and social well-being (Ostrom, 1990).

Implementing regenerative agricultural practices could restore ecosystems while creating high-value employment opportunities. Redefining fiscal policies to account for the true cost of food—incorporating health and environmental externalities—could drive better market outcomes. Strengthening local and regional food supply chains could enhance resilience against global shocks, reducing dependence on fragile just-in-time logistics (FAO, 2023).

The Urgency of a systemic approach for Global Food Systems

Food has always been the foundation of human progress, shaping institutions, economies, and societies. As governments worldwide grapple with stagnating growth, rising social inequalities, and environmental collapse, a fundamental reorganization of food systems offers a path forward. Addressing the true costs of food production, ensuring equitable access, and integrating sustainability into economic policies are not just ethical imperatives—they are necessary for long-term prosperity and stability. The future of economic and political resilience depends on our ability to rebuild food systems that serve both people and the planet.

References

• FAO. (2022). The State of Food and Agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

• FAO. (2023). Reforming Food Systems for a Sustainable Future.

• Graeber, D. (2011). Debt: The First 5000 Years. Melville House.

• IPBES. (2021). The Role of Food in Global Migration Patterns. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.

• Lagi, M., Bertrand, K. Z., & Bar-Yam, Y. (2011). The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East. New England Complex Systems Institute.

• Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press.

• Rockström, J. et al. (2020). Planetary Boundaries and the Future of Food Systems. Nature Sustainability.

• Schama, S. (1989). Citizens: A Chronicle of the French Revolution. Knopf.

• Scott, J. C. (2017). Against the Grain: A Deep History of the Earliest States. Yale University Press.

• The Lancet. (2019). Global Burden of Disease Study: Diet and Mortality.

• UNHCR. (2022). Climate Change, Food Security, and Forced Displacement.